BestTimeToFish / Methodology

Methodology & sources

Every number on this site is derived from live, public streamflow and astronomy, recomputed hourly. Here's exactly how — and where it comes from — so you can check our work.

Data vintage Flows last recomputed 2026-06-14 17:54 UTC. Fishable-flow bands last reviewed 2026-06-13.

Where the data comes from

We are not affiliated with the USGS or Open-Meteo; we reproduce and combine their public data and cite it here.

How the score is computed

For each river and each day we combine three factors into a 0–100 score:

  1. Flow vs. the river's fishable band (the dealmaker). Each river has its own published prime-flow range (in cfs). Live flow inside the band scores full credit (Prime); the shoulders score partial credit (Fishable); well below the band reads Low (skinny), and well above reads Blown (high and off-color). The band is per-river because a prime flow on a small tailwater is a trickle on a big one.
  2. Season. A curated month-by-month rating per river. Dam-fed tailwaters fish year-round; freestone rivers in spring runoff are treated as out of season. Season scales the odds: a river in prime shape during its peak month scores higher than the same flow in a shoulder month.
  3. Moon / solunar (the modifier). The day's bite strength from the moon phase, kept between 70% and 100% of the flow×season odds — a nudge, never a dealbreaker.

The score maps to a plain verdict: Blown, Low, Fishable, Prime. We do not penalize cloud cover — an overcast day can actually fish better.

The fishable-flow bands

The prime cfs range for each river, with the gage we read it from. These come from outfitter and guide-service flow guidance cross-checked against each river's USGS record, last reviewed 2026-06-13:

RiverPrime (cfs)FishableUSGS gage
Madison River Montana 800–1,500 600–2,500 06038500
Bighorn River Montana 2,500–4,500 1,500–9,000 06287000
Missouri River Montana 3,000–5,000 2,500–9,000 06066500
Gallatin River Montana 400–1,000 250–2,200 06052500
Green River Utah 800–2,600 700–4,600 09234500
San Juan River New Mexico 500–1,000 350–5,000 09355500
Colorado River at Lees Ferry Arizona 8,000–14,000 6,000–25,000 09380000
Fryingpan River Colorado 100–250 60–900 09080400

How fresh it is

An automated job re-pulls the USGS flow and the weather every hour, recomputes every river's score, and rebuilds these pages. We track 8 rivers. If a gage is stale or failing, we keep the prior reading and flag it rather than show a flow we can't stand behind.

This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Gages can be late or revised; flow and the hatch are inherently uncertain. A river in its prime band on the right moon can still fish slow, and a marginal day can surprise. Full terms.